As I write this, there is controversy within the ODM and broad-based regime networks over how to work with President William Ruto in next year’s general election. At face value, the bone of contention is that senior leaders of Raila Odinga’s party have been setting conditions and demanding written guarantees from Ruto on modalities of their cooperation. Meanwhile, a section of the party figures says emphatically that the cooperation framework should be pursued without preconditions.
One of the unique things about the post-Raila ODM is that an observer doesn’t have to struggle too much to know what is going on within the party. Since the departure of the iconic leader, the political outfit is run in such a way that everyone seems to be speaking at the same time. On any given topic, you are likely to hear from voices as diverse as CSs Wycliffe Oparanya, Hassan Joho, Opiyo Wandayi and John Mbadi, as well as party officials of all shades. Even at this point, it is usually difficult to decide who to listen to the deputy party leaders, the chairman, the SG or even Suna East MP Junet Mohamed.
But beyond the alleged preconditions that a party faction insists Ruto must meet before ODM fully backs him in 2027, the troubles in the party were always coming. To begin with, the leadership completely mishandled the immediate post-Raila period, preferring to expend so much energy and time in trying to remove then-secretary-general Edwin Sifuna, that nothing else seemed to matter. Other party programmes suffered as a result. Now Nairobi Senator Sifuna is running for president under The Equity Party.
The departure of Sifuna somewhat diminished the party’s unity as the process of removing him had been the glue that held the broad-based forces in the party together. It was made worse by the fact that the Nairobi senator’s persecution and eventual ouster transformed him into a star politician embraced by an emerging generation of voters. His mistreatment and removal further birthed his now popular Linda Mwananchi movement, which is threatening to eclipse ODM in its former bases. If the removal had been meant to neutralise Sifuna, it ended up doing the exact opposite.
But ODM and Ruto, supported by a large number of seemingly well-facilitated bloggers, were not done yet. Party officials must have calculated that any rapprochement between Sifuna and former DP Rigathi Gachagua would aggravate the Orange party’s increasingly complicated situation. So, a vicious hate campaign against Gachagua, who had been impeached, was launched all across the party’s Luo Nyanza base. It painted him as the devil incarnate and anyone who chose to work with him as an enemy of the Luo community.
It is important to understand that even within resentful ODM, many important figures acknowledged that Sifuna had been an able soldier for Raila and was hugely popular within the party bases. The near-decree banning Gachagua from contention as a partner in any form was meant to curtail Sifuna’s possible choices in his new political home. If he dared cross the red line and engage the DCP leader, this line of reasoning went, then he would irredeemably lose, especially the Luo vote. In many Luo Nyanza villages, the simple refrain went, Anything but Gachagua.
However, as if to tempt fate mightily, on Mashujaa Day, October 20, Linda Mwananchi supremo Sifuna trooped to Wamunyoro village in Nyeri county, Gachagua’s seat of power. All attention had been focused on the national festivities led by Ruto at the Kipchoge Keino Stadium in Eldoret. That’s when news of Sifuna’s Wamunyoro excursion broke, and totally reset all political conversations. And the small matter of the Gachagua red line within the broad-based government stuck out like a sore thumb.
If Sifuna had planned this Gachagua meeting earlier, all indications were that he waited long enough for the traditional Raila base to make up its mind before his move. The anything but Gachagua narrative was intended to cripple Sifuna’s ambitions and drag him through months of legal and political drama as the elections drew closer. Obviously, he saw through it. The frustrations around Sifuna’s protracted removal from ODM, and the clear attempts to register his preferred party name, Linda Mwananchi, were similarly designed to diminish him. They failed.
There is no Sifuna-Gachagua alliance yet – the two new political friends are yet to indicate who would be the flagbearer in any arrangement they make – but the Wamunyoro visit was a massive shot in the arm for the Linda Mwananchi leader. Anyone going to war picks the best weapons, and as far as a political battle goes, the Mt Kenya vote bloc offers something no other regional voting bloc can do. There is no denying that the mountain region, which smoothed Ruto’s ascendancy to power, is the real bride of Kenya’s electoral politics today. Similarly, there is simply no doubt that the former deputy president sits atop that pyramid as the regional kingpin and perhaps the biggest player in the destiny of those votes in 2027.
I submit that the Sifuna-Gachagua show has been a key part of what has accelerated the falling outs in ODM. Over the past months, Sifuna’s rise as a leading presidential contender has spotlighted whether ODM can effectively sustain the Ruto reelection drive. His removal from the Orange party had been meant to finish him politically. Far from it.
The panic caused by the perceived invincibility of a Sifuna-Gachagua joint electoral force has caused certain ODM networks to believe Ruto may indeed be looking elsewhere for a more effective counterweight to the emerging ticket. Hence, the demands for written guarantees that Ruto will not betray the party after 2027.
There is a disturbing level of delusion within ODM in believing that a written agreement alone will safeguard their interests ahead of 2027. Ever since the infamous MoU between Raila and Mwai Kibaki in 2002, experience has shown these pre-election agreements are not worth the paper they are typed on. Besides, a Ruto who wouldn’t be seeking another term after 2027 would feel less beholden to the feelings and sentiments of the ODM fraternity post-election. What in fact should have been the true safeguard for the Orange party as a negotiating tool would have been a strong party with a deep grassroots foundation and wide spread across the country. But achieving this strength was the one thing the party forgot to do after Raila’s death.
I predict that in the short term, the MDG party of Ugenya MP David Ochieng’ will be eating ODM’s breakfast in Luo Nyanza, turning tables on Orange dominance. But as the elections draw near – and especially if Gachagua actually endorses Sifuna as flagbearer – then the Linda Mwananchi caravan will storm ODM bases in ways that will leave Raila’s former party dizzy. It is my contention that the problem isn’t really about whether to set conditions and get Ruto to sign written guarantees.
The problem clearly is that ODM, the most consequential party of the past two decades, chose the path of self-destruction after Raila’s death. It stuck so passionately to that path that by the time new parties like Linda Mwananchi forcefully emerged, ODM had no answer. Having totally surrendered any claims to both the presidential ticket and running mate slot, it gave away the very sweetener of the electoral cycle, and confined itself to being a tiny hanger-on, riding on the back of Ruto’s UDA. Its punishment is coming with a vengeance in 2027.