Last month, a Kenyan legislator grabbed a coffee following a haircut in the western city of Kisumu.
Shortly after, masked youths attacked Senator Godfrey Osotsi unexpectedly – striking and beating him severely, taking his mobile devices and personal belongings before disappearing into the thoroughfares.
The assault was recorded by surveillance cameras. Within hours, the video had spread widely.
Police continue their investigation, but the senator maintained this was not a robbery. Instead, he claimed, it was politically motivated since attackers questioned why he was not backing the president’s re-election campaign.
The widespread outrage that followed the attack compelled Kenya’s parliament to call the nation’s senior security officials.
For many Kenyans, the incident seemed less like an isolated incident and more like confirmation of their long-standing concerns – that the nation was once more descending into a period of lethal political conflict.
Kenya’s history of politically backed criminal groups traces to the early 1990s and the return of multiparty democracy. Jobless young people have been recruited by multiple politicians and transformed into instruments of electoral intimidation.
These groups were a primary cause of the turmoil surrounding the devastating nationwide violence that followed the 2007 election, resulting in approximately 1,500 fatalities.
And the groundwork is being laid for an exceptionally contentious electoral period despite the next national election being as much as 15 months away.
Holding a substantial grievance regarding his 2024 impeachment and ouster from office, former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua intends to seek the presidency.
Additionally, there is a visible division within one of the major parties.
All this is elevating the political climate as attacks on politicians by hired youth – known locally as goons – are becoming more audacious.
Interior Minister Kipchumba Murkomen informed a parliamentary committee that the government was having difficulty controlling the groups that he claimed had developed from neighborhood organizations into ‘sophisticated and decentralized networks’.
Murkomen, who appeared with Kenya’s security leaders, revealed that over 104 local criminal groups were operating nationwide, many under political sponsorship.
‘The gangs belong to political figures who play a crucial role in mobilizing supporters. It’s chaotic. A reckless leader endangers national security,’ he stated, without identifying anyone.
At least 300 suspects have been detained as authorities intensified their crackdown against the criminal organizations, with police seizing weapons and communication equipment during the operations. However, no politicians were among those arrested.
Previous administrations have attempted to prohibit such groups, yet the issue has continued with gangs transforming, reorganizing and resurfacing under new names during each election cycle.
They have evolved into sophisticated entities with a defined hierarchy, a security source informed the BBC.
The former deputy president seems to have been a target of such attacks.
Since his impeachment, Gachagua has experienced a continuous pattern of violence, including being assaulted by armed individuals at churches more than twenty times in an attempt to hinder his presidential campaign.
For months, opposition figures and civil society organizations have accused police of either conspiring with, or ignoring, organized groups that attend rallies armed with makeshift weapons.
In numerous instances, they say, the violence occurs while police are present.
The passing of veteran politician Raila Odinga last October has also precipitated a significant political realignment in Kenya, with his ODM opposition party fracturing into two opposing factions divided over supporting President William Ruto.
A 28-year-old man was fatally shot when police clashed with supporters of the anti-Ruto faction at a rally in February, prompting the group to denounce what they termed ‘state-sponsored acts of violence by police and hired goons’.
Government spokesperson Isaac Mwaura categorically refuted claims that some criminal groups were state-sponsored.
‘The use of criminal groups to intimidate or silence individuals undermines our democracy and will not be tolerated. Anyone caught funding, supporting, or participating in such acts will be fully accountable under the law,’ he informed the BBC.
Opposition figures and events are not the only ones being targeted.
In February, a senate hopeful affiliated with the ruling Kenya Kwanza coalition was assaulted after a crowd disrupted a church service in the western town of Kakamega and forcibly removed her from the premises.
Last November, by-elections in western and central Kenya were overshadowed by extensive violence, with polling booth workers assaulted, armed groups fighting during vote counting and police deploying tear gas against voters.
‘These incidents depict a concerning portrait of a nation where political competition increasingly devolves into organized street violence carried out by hired gangs functioning with precision and without restraint,’ stated Robert Chege, a security analyst.
Each attack, considered individually, might be dismissed. But collectively, they outline a nation approaching an abyss it has previously descended into and barely overcome, warn observers.
‘The concerning issue in Kenya is that this has become almost standard practice across all major political parties. In fact, it is a Kenyan culture, an epidemic,’ wrote Prof Makau Mutua, a legal expert and adviser to Ruto.
The report discovered hundreds of criminal groups in operation, with more than 120 connected to politicians. These were no longer temporary entities but had become established institutions within their communities, according to the report.
Inspector General of Police Douglas Kanja informed parliamentarians that the police were treating the matter seriously, noting that security agencies had already determined those responsible for the turmoil.
‘This matter of goons and guns will end soon. We have conducted thorough investigations. We know where they originate, who finances them, who carries out the actions, who organizes at the community level and so on,’ Kanja added.
The interior minister addressed concerns about accusations of police inaction toward gangs. He acknowledged issues in some cases, citing ‘operational challenges’, including corruption and information leaks, and stated that the ministry was taking all allegations of police involvement or neglect seriously.
Critics, however, contend that the government’s response has been inconsistent – forceful in language but lacking in implementation.
Chege characterized Kenya’s security crisis as self-inflicted and maintained by political patronage networks and state systems ‘that prosper through violence and inequality’.
‘The question is no longer who the goons are, but who dispatches them, finances them and shields them? The true architects of Kenya’s increasing tide of organized violence remain unidentified,’ he added.
Ordinary Kenyans will hope that authorities can provide some solutions before the violence escalates ahead of general elections that must occur by August next year.