The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has issued a warning about developing El Niño conditions, which pose a threat to increase global temperatures and disrupt rainfall patterns in the coming months across most regions of the world.
Based on WMO weather and climate updates published on June 2, there stands an 80 percent chance of El Niño forming between June and August 2026 throughout the tropical Pacific.
“A recent WMO El Niño/La Niña Update reveals an 80% probability of an El Niño occurrence during the June-August 2026 period,” announced the WMO.
Furthermore, forecast models indicate this event could continue with over 90 percent certainty through November, potentially achieving moderate or strong intensity levels.
According to the WMO, this development will significantly affect global temperatures, as seasonal forecasts predict above-average temperature levels almost universally from June to August, thereby increasing heat stress risks worldwide.
Researchers explain that abnormally warm water beneath the Pacific Ocean’s surface, covering areas including Indonesia, the Philippines, Papua New Guinea, and exceeding normal temperature ranges, is causing surface warming.
For Africa, the WMO climate map suggests El Niño conditions will impact rainfall patterns, especially in eastern and southern regions,
The report indicates “Above-Normal Precipitation” is anticipated in the Horn of Africa, affecting nations such as Kenya, Somalia, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Djibouti and South Sudan.
The projected rise in rainfall may cause flooding, landslides, and extensive damage to crops and infrastructure, sparking concerns about food security and displacement among vulnerable communities across impacted regions during this forecast period.
“Rainfall probabilities align with typical El Niño patterns and this will likely heighten the chances of extreme events (such as increased rainfall and flooding), as well as drier conditions and droughts,” noted the WMO.
Between 1997 and 1998, Kenya encountered one of its most severe El Niño episodes, characterized by exceptionally heavy rainfall, widespread flooding, severe landslides in elevated areas, and nationwide infrastructure destruction.
From 2023 to 2024, a robust El Niño coupled with a positive Indian Ocean Dipole resulted in devastating flooding across Kenya, displacing hundreds of thousands and causing extensive damage to homes, roads, and livelihoods.