Kenya is projected to encounter near-normal to below-normal precipitation in various critical farming areas from June through August, whereas the coastal region anticipates increased rainfall, as per the newest seasonal prediction issued by the Kenya Meteorological Department.
The June-July-August (JJA) 2026 forecast reveals that the Highlands situated west of the Rift Valley, the Lake Victoria Basin, the Rift Valley and sections of Northwestern Kenya are likely to receive near-normal to below-normal rainfall interspersed with periods of dryness.
Conversely, coastal counties such as Mombasa, Kilifi, Lamu and Kwale are anticipated to experience near-normal to above-average rainfall throughout this period.
According to the Department, this season is not a significant rainfall period for most areas of the nation, with many regions expected to remain predominantly arid owing to the impact of the southeastern monsoon winds.
“The southeastern lowlands and Northeastern Kenya are forecasted to be mostly sun-filled and dry, while the Highlands east of the Rift Valley will encounter light precipitation and fog,” the department stated in its forecast.
Counties predicted to receive near-normal to below-normal rainfall encompass Nandi, Kakamega, Vihiga, Bungoma, Siaya, Busia, Baringo, Nakuru, Trans Nzoia, Uasin Gishu, Elgeyo Marakwet, West Pokot, Kisii, Nyamira, Kericho, Bomet, Kisumu, Homa Bay, Migori and Narok.
Meanwhile, Turkana and Samburu counties are expected to remain predominantly sunny and dry, though isolated pockets might experience light precipitation.
The forecast also demonstrates that temperatures are anticipated to be higher than average across most regions of the country despite June to August typically being Kenya’s coolest season.
The elevated likelihood of above-normal temperatures is projected in the Highlands west of the Rift Valley, Lake Victoria Basin, the Coast, Northwestern and Northeastern Kenya.
However, cool and overcast conditions with occasional fog are anticipated in the Highlands east and west of the Rift Valley, portions of the southeastern lowlands, the Rift Valley and Marsabit County.
The meteorological department additionally cautioned that strong southerly, southeasterly and easterly winds surpassing 25 knots are anticipated over sections of the Coast, southeastern lowlands, Northeastern and Northwestern Kenya.
These winds are connected with monsoon circulation patterns and the influence of the Somali Low-Level Jet and Turkana Channel.
Based on the forecast, the anticipated weather conditions are likely to have varied consequences across key economic sectors.
In agriculture, the near-normal to below-normal precipitation prediction in western Kenya and Rift Valley areas is expected to maintain crop production following the favorable long rains experienced between March and May. Coastal farmers are also anticipated to gain from enhanced soil moisture due to increased rainfall.
Nevertheless, cool and overcast conditions could delay crop maturation, while strong winds in eastern Kenya might harm crops and elevate moisture loss through evapotranspiration.
The water sector may encounter difficulties as below-normal precipitation in major watershed areas could diminish river flows, groundwater recharge and reservoir levels. Water scarcity is also anticipated in the southeastern lowlands, Northeastern and Northwestern regions due to extended dry periods.
The transportation sector could face disruptions from strong winds, which might impact maritime operations and damage infrastructure including roofs and power lines. Foggy conditions are also expected to decrease visibility on roadways and at airports in elevated regions.
Health professionals have been advised to prepare for potential increases in respiratory ailments such as influenza and pneumonia in colder regions, while dust generated by strong winds in arid zones might worsen respiratory and eye conditions.
In the energy sector, reduced rainfall in key water catchment areas might decrease inflows into hydropower reservoirs, potentially affecting electricity production. However, strong winds could enhance output from wind power projects in impacted areas.
The forecast follows an assessment of the March-April-May 2026 long-rains season, which indicated that most parts of Kenya received near-normal to above-average rainfall, while temperatures remained generally higher than average across the nation.