The Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) has cautioned that most East African countries will experience a hot and dry period from June to September, with Kenya anticipated to be spared the most severe rainfall deficiencies.
A recent forecast issued on May 21 indicates diminished rainfall across much of the region during the crucial mid-year agricultural season that millions rely upon.
South Sudan, Uganda, Ethiopia, Djibouti, Eritrea, Sudan, and portions of western and coastal Kenyan areas are listed among the territories most impacted, with water shortages expected to be most severe between June and September.
“The Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF) forecasts a substantial probability of below-average precipitation across much of the northern Greater Horn of Africa during the vital June–September rainy season, especially in South Sudan, Uganda, Ethiopia, Djibouti, most of Eritrea, Sudan and western and coastal Kenya,” stated IGAD.
For Kenya, the forecast is not entirely negative. Southern areas of the nation, including Mombasa, Kwale, Kilifi, Lamu, Taita-Taveta, Kajiado, Narok, Machakos, Makueni, and Kitui County, are expected to receive near-average rainfall, offering relief for farmers in these localities.
Furthermore, northern regions of the country, such as Turkana, Marsabit, Samburu, Isiolo, Garissa, Wajir, Mandera, West Pokot, Baringo, and Laikipia County, are also forecasted to experience normal rainfall levels.
Conversely, western districts including Kakamega, Vihiga, Busia, and Bungoma County, along with coastal Kenyan areas like Kilifi, Mombasa, Tana River, Taita Taveta, and Malindi County are expected to have a greater likelihood of reduced rainfall, posing significant challenges for agricultural communities in these fertile regions.
Temperatures are also predicted to exceed normal levels throughout much of the region, with northern Sudan, South Sudan, and Ethiopia anticipated to experience the most extreme heat in the upcoming months.
According to the forecast, the most severely affected area is northeastern Ethiopia, where the likelihood of below-average rainfall reaches 80 percent, making this area the most critical requiring immediate government attention.
This forecast arrives as many parts of the country have recently encountered above-average rainfall, a condition that has led to the destruction of vital infrastructure including roads and resulted in fatalities.
Statistics indicate that over 180 individuals have lost their lives. This same data shows that more than 70,000 people were evacuated across 21 counties.
The prediction also coincides with weekly forecasts indicating average rainfall amounts until May 23 in Nairobi, and the other five regions, encompassing counties in western Kenya, the central area, and substantial portions of the Rift Valley highlands.