A recent poll conducted by TIFA Research indicates that President William Ruto maintains his position as the favored presidential candidate for the upcoming 2027 General Election.
The survey, carried out from May 2 to May 11, 2026, shows Ruto leading the presidential preference race with 24 percent support, while Kalonzo Musyoka follows with 19 percent.
These two are closely trailed by former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i at 14 percent, Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna in fourth place with 10 percent, and Rigathi Gachagua with 9 percent.
TIFA observed that the political landscape may shift significantly due to the lack of a unified opposition candidate.
‘The 2027 presidential contest remains highly uncertain, with no candidate securing substantial nationwide backing. Despite President William Ruto’s lead at 24%, the results indicate increasing competitive tension,’ TIFA stated.
Additionally, the survey indicates Ruto’s popularity has increased over the past year, rising from previous poll figures in the teens to the current 24 percent, while the undecided vote has decreased to 15 percent.
Geographically, Ruto commands his strongest support in Northern Kenya at 48 percent and Nyanza at 41 percent, while Kalonzo holds significant dominance in Lower Eastern with an overwhelming 78 percent backing.
Meanwhile, Matiang’i achieved his highest performance in Nyanza at 27 percent, and Gachagua maintains his strongest support base in Mt Kenya, where he received 23 percent.
The survey also disclosed that a majority of Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) supporters strongly prefer the Sifuna-led Linda Mwananchi faction compared to the Oburu-led Linda Ground camp.
TIFA reports that 73 percent of ODM supporters favor the Linda Mwananchi faction, while only 24 percent back the Linda Ground faction, which aligns with broader-based arrangements.
‘ODM supporters seem to prefer a more independent, people-focused opposition strategy rather than enhanced collaboration with the current administration,’ the report indicated.
‘The substantial support for the Linda Mwananchi faction reflects an increasing grassroots inclination toward leaders perceived as championing public interests and ensuring governmental accountability.’