MWAMISI: Raila exit from politics will greatly weaken ODM, Azimio

Raila’s Exit From Politics Sparks Power Vacuum and Realignments in ODM, Azimio
The looming retirement of ODM leader Raila Odinga is reshaping Kenya’s political landscape, with analysts warning that his departure could trigger deep divisions within the opposition. As one of the country’s most enduring political figures, Raila’s exit marks the end of an era and the beginning of uncertainty for the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) and the Azimio la Umoja coalition. Without a clear succession plan, several of Raila’s long-time allies are already jostling for dominance, creating a leadership vacuum that threatens to fracture the opposition.
The absence of a designated successor has fueled growing tensions within ODM, with figures such as former governors Hassan Joho and Wycliffe Oparanya emerging as potential contenders. Younger leaders like Embakasi East MP Babu Owino have also begun forming new alliances, signaling a generational shift within the party. Political observers note that while ODM has long relied on Raila’s personal networks and charisma, the lack of a structured transition could see key supporters defect to rival parties or pursue independent political paths. This uncertainty could weaken ODM’s grassroots machinery and undermine its ability to mount a united challenge in the 2027 elections.
Beyond internal competition, Raila’s potential move to the African Union Commission — a bid supported by President William Ruto and Foreign Affairs CS Musalia Mudavadi — has added a complex layer to Kenya’s political chessboard. Should Raila succeed, the achievement would strengthen Ruto’s regional diplomatic profile while expanding his political reach in Nyanza and western Kenya, regions that have historically been ODM strongholds. Mudavadi, too, stands to benefit politically, potentially enhancing his presidential ambitions ahead of 2032. However, this evolving dynamic leaves opposition figures like Kalonzo Musyoka and Martha Karua struggling to consolidate their bases amid limited resources and shifting loyalties.
As Raila transitions from frontline politics to statesmanship, his influence will likely persist behind the scenes through strategic endorsements and subtle interventions. Yet his absence from active opposition leadership presents both risk and opportunity: the risk of ODM’s disintegration, and the opportunity for renewal and emergence of fresh leadership. Whether the opposition can reorganize around new ideas — or collapse under the weight of its own rivalries — will define the next chapter of Kenya’s democracy.