Former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua welcomed opposition co-principals Kalonzo Musyoka and Eugene Wamalwa at his Karen residence on Monday as a three-judge panel prepared to deliver its eagerly awaited ruling on petitions challenging his removal from office.
The judgment may substantially impact his political trajectory and the configuration of opposition forces leading up to the 2027 General Election.
Visuals captured during the meeting showed Gachagua, Kalonzo and Wamalwa in a relaxed setting as the opposition leaders awaited the High Court’s decision on the consolidated petitions contesting Gachagua’s impeachment.
Former Second Lady Pastor Dorcas Rigathi and the couple’s two sons were also in attendance.
The verdict was being issued by a three-judge panel consisting of Justices Eric Ogola, Anthony Murima and Freda Mugambi.
The display of unity highlighted Gachagua’s rising prominence within the United Opposition, a collective of leaders aiming to defeat President William Ruto in the 2027 General Election.
While the ruling focuses on the legality of Gachagua’s dismissal from office in October 2024, its political implications reach well beyond the judicial proceedings.
Gachagua has recently positioned himself as the ideal candidate to challenge Ruto in 2027, emphasizing his influence in Mt Kenya and his capacity to mobilize opposition against the current president.
His supporters have increasingly characterized him as the logical leader of the coalition’s efforts, despite other notable figures also pursuing the presidency.
Gachagua has maintained that the Mt Kenya region continues to be the nation’s most influential voting bloc, with his supporters viewing a favorable court decision as a significant political advantage that would enhance his position within the opposition and bolster his assertion to lead the coalition into the upcoming election.
Political observers have cautioned, however, that such positioning could create divisions within the opposition coalition.
Several coalition leaders, including Martha Karua, have pushed for a systematic and fact-driven approach to select the coalition’s presidential nominee.
This approach aims to prevent early leadership contests and guarantee that the final candidate commands widespread national backing.
The discussion has reignited recollections of the circumstances surrounding the 2013 General Election, when Kalonzo was overlooked in favor of the coalition between Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto.
During that period, Kalonzo’s presidential aspirations encountered significant hurdles when the pair contended that his Ukambani support base lacked the electoral strength necessary for victory, thereby popularizing the now-renowned “tyranny of numbers” concept.
Over a decade later, comparable concerns regarding regional voting blocs, electoral calculations, and coalition power distribution are emerging within the opposition ranks.
Recent polling data indicates that the competition for opposition leadership remains far from decided.
A Tifa Research survey put President Ruto in the lead with 24 percent support. Kalonzo ranked as the most popular opposition leader with 19 percent backing, followed by former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i at 14 percent.
Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna occupied fourth position with 10 percent support, with Gachagua in fifth place at 9 percent.
Nevertheless, Gachagua’s advocates contend that polling data alone may not reflect the sway he holds in Mt Kenya, an area commonly viewed as one of the nation’s most crucial electoral battlegrounds.
Gachagua has been endeavoring to solidify support throughout the Mt Kenya region while broadening his national appeal, and a favorable court ruling would likely be portrayed by supporters as both judicial exoneration and political endorsement.
The legal proceedings originate from Gachagua’s impeachment in October 2024, when he was removed from office following the Senate’s affirmation of five charges against him, encompassing allegations of ethnic mobilization, breaches of the National Cohesion and Integration Act, compromising judicial independence, and grave misconduct stemming from public criticism of the National Intelligence Service.
Gachagua disputed the procedure in court, asserting that he was prevented from properly defending himself after becoming ill and being hospitalized during the Senate deliberations.
Although he initially pursued restoration to his former position, he subsequently abandoned that effort and redirected his attention to compensation and the recovery of benefits linked to the deputy presidency.
As the judges continued presenting their extensive verdict on the combined petitions, it remained unclear whether the decision would ultimately enhance Gachagua’s position within the opposition or heighten rivalry for the coalition’s presidential nomination.
Legal authorities have noted, however, that even if the court declines to reverse his impeachment, Gachagua would still have the alternative of pursuing appeals through superior judicial bodies.