A comprehensive study published in the Journal of Great Lakes Research has delivered a stark confirmation of a sustained and alarming decline in Lake Victoria’s fish biomass, raising urgent concerns for the food and economic security of millions in the region. The research, conducted by a consortium of East African and international scientists, attributes the crisis to a perfect storm of interconnected threats: severe overfishing driven by a high number of unregulated boats and illegal gear, the devastating ecological impacts of the invasive water hyacinth and Nile perch, and the deteriorating water quality from pollution and climate change. The findings indicate that the lake’s once-bountiful fishery, which supports the livelihoods of over four million people, is under unprecedented stress, with some native species pushed to the brink of commercial extinction.
The data reveals a troubling shift in the lake’s ecological balance. The study documents a dramatic reduction in the catch of small, nutrient-rich pelagic fish, known locally as dagaa (Rastrineobola argentea) and omena, which are a crucial source of affordable protein for local populations and the backbone of the animal feed industry. This decline is linked to both direct overexploitation and the disruption of the food web caused by the Nile perch. Furthermore, the proliferation of water hyacinth mats depletes oxygen in the water, blocks sunlight, and disrupts breeding grounds, creating dead zones that further suppress fish populations. The cumulative effect is a fishery that is both less productive and less resilient, unable to sustain the current level of fishing pressure.
The study’s authors issue an urgent call for a coordinated, multi-national response based on ecosystem-based management. They recommend immediate and enforced restrictions on fishing effort, including licensing caps and closed seasons, alongside a massive push to control pollution from surrounding cities and farms. Community-led beach management units need greater authority and resources to combat illegal fishing. The long-term survival of Lake Victoria’s fishery hinges on treating the lake as a single, integrated ecosystem shared by Kenya, Uganda, and Tanzania. Without swift, decisive, and cooperative action, the study warns, the lake’s capacity to feed and employ its growing population will continue to erode, triggering a profound humanitarian and economic crisis across East Africa.