Factions Pull in Different Directions as Orange Democratic Movement Faces Leadership Crisis
With the passing of veteran leader Raila Odinga, the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) finds itself at a crossroads — and a recent newspaper review revealed deep‑seated factional divisions that could undermine the party’s coherence ahead of the 2027 general election. According to a summary of Kenyan newspapers, one faction within ODM is pushing to remain within the current coalition government, while another believes the party should shift to outright opposition and pursue the presidency independently.
The rift manifests along generational and positional lines. On one side are younger party figures such as Edwin Sifuna and Babu Owino who argue that ODM must affirm its identity by breaking away from government alliances and charting a fresh national path. On the other side are veteran members including Oburu Oginga, party chairperson Gladys Wanga, and other senior officials who prefer to maintain ties with the ruling group for strategic advantage. Analysts warn that this tug‑of‑war is more than internal squabbling — it could determine whether ODM remains a unified national force or fractures into regional and personality‑based alignments.
Reactions inside the party and in the wider political arena have been cautious. Some observers believe the divisions expose a leadership vacuum at the top of the party, raising questions about succession and strategic direction. Others suggest that the ruling coalition, led by William Ruto, may exploit ODM’s disarray to weaken its negotiating position ahead of 2027. Indeed, one analysis posited that Ruto might look to draw ODM’s leadership and resources toward his side, or pick a running mate from the party’s ranks to erode its independent influence.
Looking ahead, how ODM resolves its internal contest will likely influence Kenya’s broader electoral landscape. If the party fails to present a unified path, it risks losing its traditional strength in key regions and becoming a transactional partner rather than a forceful contender. On the flip side, if one faction prevails and shapes a clear new direction — whether inside or outside the government fold — ODM could recalibrate itself as a kingmaker or battleground contender in 2027. The next few months of internal negotiation, alignment and messaging may well decide the future of one of Kenya’s most influential political parties.