From Hope to Hate: How Kenya’s Politics Shifted Since 2022 General Election, Gachagua Ouster

From Hope to Tribal Tensions: Kenya’s Political Landscape Since 2022
Kenya’s political optimism following the 2022 general elections has gradually eroded, giving way to renewed tribal divisions and transactional politics. President William Ruto’s victory was initially celebrated as a shift from identity-driven campaigns to issue-focused leadership, emphasizing policies on economic growth and poverty alleviation. The electorate seemed ready to embrace a politics of ideas, with Ruto framing his campaign as a contest between hustlers and dynasties, and opposition figures, including Raila Odinga, presenting alternative economic visions. Analysts described this as a historic moment where policy discussions temporarily overshadowed tribal allegiances.
However, the fallout between Ruto and former deputy president Rigathi Gachagua has since reignited ethnic considerations in governance. Gachagua’s political maneuvers, particularly his claims of negotiating Mt Kenya votes in exchange for government positions, highlighted the persistence of ethnic bargaining. His overseas engagements with Kenyan diaspora groups, often organised along ethnic lines, drew criticism for reinforcing the notion that tribal affiliations remain central to political mobilization. Meanwhile, leaders such as Wiper Party’s Kalonzo Musyoka have been reviving traditional ethnic blocs like GEMA, signaling a broader trend toward consolidating tribal bases ahead of the 2027 elections. Warnings from CS Aden Duale about potential unrest reminiscent of the 2007–2008 post-election violence underscore the stakes involved in this shift.
Yet, amid these setbacks, a new generation of politically active Kenyans offers hope for change. Nationwide youth-led protests against the Finance Bill in 2024–2025 demonstrated cross-ethnic solidarity, emphasizing accountability and governance over tribal loyalty. Figures such as Edwin Sifuna, Babu Owino, and Caleb Amisi represent a Third Force in Kenyan politics, advocating for issue-based leadership and citizen-focused policies. Analysts suggest that if this momentum continues, Generation Z could play a pivotal role in steering Kenya back toward a more inclusive, policy-driven political discourse. As the 2027 elections approach, the balance between ethnic politics and emergent civic engagement will determine whether Kenya repeats the mistakes of the past or strengthens its democratic trajectory.