Kenyans are being advised to prepare for a hotter and drier December, as the latest forecasts predict below-average rainfall and rising temperatures across much of the country. The outlook, released by the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), points to suppressed rainfall over equatorial and southern East Africa, including central and southern Kenya, southern Uganda, and most of Tanzania. Meteorologists attribute the expected dry conditions to a developing negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and the potential onset of La Niña, which can reduce rainfall during the short rains. Only limited areas, such as parts of Ethiopia, central Kenya, and northeastern Somalia, are projected to record cooler conditions.
The Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) has highlighted that regions such as the northeast, southeastern lowlands, and the Coast are likely to see below-average rainfall, while the South and Central Rift Valley, Lake Victoria Basin, Nairobi, and parts of the highlands may experience near to below-normal precipitation. Conversely, some highland areas west of the Rift Valley and parts of the northwest could record near to above-average rainfall. Charles Mugah of KMD noted that the uneven rainfall distribution could lead to prolonged dry spells punctuated by isolated storms, posing challenges for farming, water resources, and overall agricultural productivity.
Temperatures are also expected to climb, with central and eastern Kenya experiencing notably warmer-than-average conditions. Only a few western and central areas may see near-normal or slightly cooler temperatures. Officials stress the importance of monitoring ENSO (El Niño–Southern Oscillation) developments, as the evolving La Niña could further influence weather patterns. Citizens are advised to adopt water-saving measures, prepare for potential heat-related risks, and stay updated on local forecasts to navigate the seasonal shift effectively.