Somalia’s admission into the East African Community (EAC) in November 2023 marks a major regional milestone—but it also introduces complex security concerns for neighboring states, especially Kenya. While Somalia seeks economic recovery after decades of conflict, al-Shabaab remains the country’s most dangerous non-state actor, controlling sections of territory and carrying out high-impact attacks both at home and across borders. Despite recent Somali military operations that have pushed the group onto the defensive, al-Shabaab continues to demonstrate significant resilience. In 2023 alone, hundreds of civilians were killed in Somalia, while Kenya and Uganda have also repeatedly faced cross-border attacks. With Somalia now entering a bloc that promotes free movement of people and goods, member states must confront the possibility that insecurity may spill over more easily.
Kenya is particularly exposed due to its long and porous border with Somalia, where al-Shabaab militants frequently ambush security convoys, plant improvised explosive devices, and target civilian settlements in Lamu, Garissa, Mandera, and Wajir. Even with the official border closed since 2012, the group has managed to cross into Kenyan territory, raising concerns about how expanded regional integration could complicate security operations. Recent months saw a sharp spike in militant activity on both sides of the border, prompting Kenya to launch a series of airstrikes in southern Somalia. Although these operations have disrupted some militant hideouts, they have also drawn criticism over civilian harm, illustrating the delicate balance between counter-terrorism and community safety.
Somalia’s entry into the EAC may strengthen regional cooperation, but it also places renewed pressure on partner states to coordinate border security, intelligence sharing, and counter-insurgency strategies. Countries like Kenya, Uganda, and Burundi already contribute troops to the African Union mission in Somalia, yet questions remain about who will fill the security vacuum when ATMIS withdraws in 2024. The mixed performance of the EAC Regional Force in the Democratic Republic of Congo further complicates expectations. As integration deepens, Kenya and its partners will need robust, unified strategies to contain al-Shabaab’s ambitions and safeguard regional stability.