DCP Surge Threatens President Ruto’s Grip in Nakuru as Ethnic Alliances Falter for 2027

A newly-emerging political triangle in Kenya’s populous Nakuru County is shifting the balance of power as the Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP) makes inroads amid waning support for William Ruto. Traditionally a stronghold for Ruto’s UDA alliance, the county is witnessing growing disaffection among the Kikuyu electorate—who formerly supported the Mt. Kenya-Rift Valley marriage with the Kalenjin—following the impeachment of Rigathi Gachagua and Ruto’s partnership with Raila Odinga. Analysts suggest the shift could erode the UDA base and open space for challengers ahead of the 2027 polls.
The change in political winds was captured in local dynamics: Nakuru, home to over one million registered voters, has seen Kikuyu-community leaders and grassroots organisers increasingly align with the DCP rather than UDA. The county’s ethnic profile—with significant Kikuyu and Kalenjin blocs alongside substantial Luo, Luhya and Kisii minorities—means no one coalition can dominate. As cracks emerge in the Kikuyu-Kalenjin alliance that held sway after 2013, county-level contests for governor, senator and MP are already aligning along new fault-lines.
The shift has triggered strong reactions. UDA loyalists and Governor Susan Kihika remain publicly committed to Ruto’s agenda, reinforcing her stance that Nakuru remains firmly in the Kenya Kwanza camp. But opposition campaigners and civic observers view the DCP’s momentum as a wake-up call: that Ruto’s dominance may no longer be assured, especially if his farm-tax and youth-unemployment challenges persist amid ethnic discontent.
Looking ahead, Nakuru is fast becoming a bellwether for Kenya’s 2027 general election. If DCP converts its early gains into nominations and real-world victories, it could cast Nakuru—once considered safe UDA territory—as competitive terrain. Success for UDA will depend on whether it can rebuild cross-ethnic alliances and offset DCP’s narrative. For voters, the real test will be whether promises translate into development, not just headlines.