From Hope to Hate: How Kenya’s Politics Shifted Since 2022 General Election, Gachagua Ouster

Kenya’s Political Promise Fades as Tribal Loyalties Resurface After 2022 Elections
What began as a hopeful new chapter for Kenya’s democracy after the 2022 General Election has steadily unravelled into a return to ethnic politics, analysts warn. Once celebrated for its issue-based campaigns and youthful optimism, the country’s political space has now been clouded by tribal alliances and old power bargains. The fallout between President William Ruto and his former deputy, Rigathi Gachagua, has become emblematic of this regression—reviving ethnic rhetoric and exposing deep divisions within the ruling United Democratic Alliance (UDA). Political observers argue that this turn of events reflects the fragility of Kenya’s democratic transition and the persistence of identity-driven politics that continue to overshadow policy discussions.
During the 2022 campaigns, both Ruto and Azimio la Umoja leader Raila Odinga championed economic blueprints—the bottom-up model and social welfare-based reforms—that gave voters hope for a break from tribal politics. For a moment, Kenyans believed the era of ethnic arithmetic was behind them. Yet, within months of assuming office, political discourse shifted back to familiar lines. Gachagua’s insistence on regional power-sharing deals for the Mount Kenya bloc and his public spats with State House drew attention to a widening rift in government. Meanwhile, opposition figures like Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka have revived ethnic alliances such as the Gikuyu, Embu, and Meru Association (GEMA), in what analysts see as a bid to consolidate tribal influence ahead of the 2027 elections.
The resurgence of identity politics has sparked fears of renewed divisions similar to those witnessed during the 2007–2008 crisis. Defence Cabinet Secretary Aden Duale has warned that Kenya risks sliding back into dangerous ethnic mobilization unless reforms are urgently prioritized. However, amid the tension, a new generation of politically conscious youth is emerging as a counterforce. The 2024–2025 Gen Z-led protests against the Finance Bill showed that young Kenyans can unite across ethnic lines under shared demands for accountability and justice. As the 2027 polls approach, many believe that the energy of Kenya’s youth—combined with a push for institutional integrity—could steer the nation back toward the inclusive, issue-based politics it once aspired to achieve.