Why only coalitions will define Kenya post 2027 – The Standard

In Kenya’s political landscape, the dominance of broad alliances over single parties has become nearly inevitable. As the article from The Standard Group PLC explains, recent legal and parliamentary outcomes — such as the dispute over which bloc controls Parliament — demonstrate how individual parties find it difficult to muster the nationwide support required under Kenya’s electoral rules.
The author argues that facing a constitutional threshold requiring 50 % + 1 of votes plus 25 % in at least 24 counties, candidates or parties must assemble national coalitions that cut across regions and communities.
The article goes further to outline structural reasons why coalitions dominate. First, Kenya’s ethnically-diverse electorate means that a single party rooted in one region or ethnic base cannot win alone — coalitions help aggregate support across multiple regions. Second, parties are often weak institutional organisations, relying instead on powerful individuals; alliances provide a framework for elites to bargain, share power and deliver votes.
But the piece also cautions: success is not guaranteed simply by forming a coalition. The durability and coherence of these alliances matter—they must go beyond surface deals to incorporate joint vision, policies and dispute-resolution mechanisms.
Looking ahead, the author suggests that post-2027 Kenya will not be defined solely by personalities or single-party dominance but by how effectively coalitions are formed and manage internal cohesion. The electoral arithmetic, legal requirements and historical precedent all point toward a politics of alliances. For Kenyan voters, the key question will be whether these coalitions deliver substantive governance or revert to transactional power-sharing. As the article warns, weakly structured alliances risk fragmentation, governance paralysis and disillusionment.