Regional experts are calling for Kenya and Ethiopia to strengthen cooperation rather than compete for influence in the Horn of Africa, warning that geopolitical fragmentation continues to expose the region to external intervention. With conflicts persisting in Sudan, Somalia and parts of Ethiopia, alongside renewed tensions with Eritrea, analysts argue that local leadership must take a more united approach to safeguard regional stability. A recent strategic assessment by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) highlights that without strong, coordinated leadership from pillar states like Kenya and Ethiopia, the Horn risks becoming increasingly vulnerable to the ambitions of global and middle powers seeking deeper footholds along the Red Sea corridor.
Ethiopia is viewed as critical to regional transformation, but its ability to lead hinges on stabilizing internal political and security challenges. Although Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s reform agenda once promised a stronger, unified federal system, years of conflict—particularly the devastating Tigray war and ongoing regional autonomy disputes—have slowed national consolidation. The CSIS analysis suggests that while landmark achievements such as the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam symbolize national pride, Ethiopia must repair strained relations with Sudan, Eritrea, Somalia and Djibouti to truly reclaim a central regional role. Meanwhile, Kenya’s long-standing reputation as a neutral mediator and its history of promoting regional trade have positioned it as a consistent diplomatic actor. However, Nairobi’s recent involvement in crises such as the Sudan conflict and the DRC mission has raised questions about whether its foreign policy direction remains as coherent as in previous years.
Despite these pressures, analysts believe that both nations retain significant potential to shape a more autonomous and stable Horn of Africa—if they prioritize collaboration. Kenya’s economic aspirations rely heavily on predictable regional markets, while Ethiopia needs strong diplomatic partnerships to advance reconstruction and development. Experts argue that platforms such as the East African Community (EAC) and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) offer practical avenues for harmonizing the two countries’ strategic visions. Without such unity, conflict mediation in Sudan, Somalia and the DRC will continue to be dominated by external powers, limiting African-led solutions. Strengthened coordination between Nairobi and Addis Ababa, the report concludes, could help shift the region toward stability, reduce foreign dependency and build a more resilient foundation for long-term peace.