William Ruto’s Political Dilemma as ODM Insists on DP Position in Coalition With Kenya Kwanza

Title: Ruto Faces Strategic Crossroads as ODM Demands Deputy Presidency in Kenya Kwanza Alliance
President William Ruto finds himself at a political inflection point as Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) presses for the deputy presidency slot in any partnership with his Kenya Kwanza Alliance. The demand comes in the wake of Raila Odinga’s passing, and analysts view it as a calculated bid by ODM to shore up its future relevance. If Ruto agrees to the deputy post for an ODM figure, he risks alienating his Mt Kenya support base—which is staunchly backing current deputy Kithure Kindiki—but if he resists, he may jeopardise vital votes from Nyanza and the coast ahead of 2027.
Politically, the scenario is a high-stakes balancing act. ODM’s leadership, citing its enduring voter base and regional strength in Nyanza and coastal counties, argues that securing the deputy presidency is not mere symbolism—it is a strategic vote-counting move. Oburu Oginga, speaking for the interim board, contends this is about safeguarding the party’s heritage and negotiating power after their long-time leader’s departure. Ruto, meanwhile, holds the cards: he could bring ODM into a formal alliance, pulling in new voters, or he could maintain his current Mt Kenya-heavy coalition intact and risk a rupture with ODM’s influential cadres.
Reactions across the political spectrum reflect the gravity of the choices ahead. Supporters of Ruto’s UDA base argue that conceding the deputy slot to ODM would be akin to trading away the Mt Kenya cake that helped secure the 2022 win. Smaller parties in the Kenya Kwanza camp have already issued warnings that they will not tolerate being sidelined. On the other hand, ODM insiders sympathetic to an alliance with the government view the demand as non-negotiable if the party is to remain competitive in 2027. Outsiders warn that the turbulence could fracture both sides: Ruto might lose Mt Kenya voters, and ODM might splinter internally between collaboration and opposition wings.
Looking ahead, the path Ruto chooses will likely shape Kenya’s political contours up to the 2027 general election. If he gives in to ODM’s request, we might see a broader coalition headed by Kenya Kwanza with significant Nyanza-coastal influence. Conversely, if he resists, the election could become a fierce contest between Mt Kenya-anchored Ruto and a standalone ODM-led opposition. The decision is less about today’s portfolio and more about who controls the narrative and voter blocs in the next chapter of Kenyan politics.