MUZENGEZA: After Raila: Kenya’s First election without its political lodestar

Kenya is entering the 2027 election season under unfamiliar terrain: for the first time in decades, the campaign will unfold without the commanding presence of Raila Odinga, a towering figure in opposition politics whose influence spanned generations and regions. With his passing earlier this year, analysts say the absence of his unifying persona signals more than a change of guard—it may reshape the very structure of how power is wielded and alliances are formed ahead of the upcoming polls.
Raila’s role transcended that of typical party leader. For decades he served as the linchpin of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) and the broader opposition, forging coalitions and commanding a reliable vote‑base across Nyanza and Western Kenya. His departure has triggered immediate political recalibration: in the absence of his central brand, ODM faces internal friction battling over succession, while rival parties and regional power‑brokers sense opportunity to fill the vacuum. The result is a more fluid, less predictable electoral map.
Reactions to this shift are mixed. Some opposition supporters mourn the loss of what they described as a moral compass and a stabilising force, while political operatives warn that the risk of fragmentation and voter disorientation is acute. At the same time, members of the ruling coalition see possibility in contesting territory long considered the opposition’s domain, especially in the regions where Raila’s pull once held sway. The change marks an inflection point: moving from personality‑centred politics to one that may demand stronger institutions and broader bases of mobilization.
Looking ahead to 2027, the big question is whether Kenyan politics will pivot toward a post‑Raila era defined by new voices, organisational solidity and policy‑driven contestation—or revert to new personality‑cult dynamics under emerging leaders. For ODM and its allies, consolidating around a new consensus figure or reinventing their appeal will be critical. Meanwhile, for the ruling side, converting the opening into sustainable support will depend on strategic sensitivity and outreach. What is clear: the next election is about more than just candidates—it may test the maturation of Kenya’s democracy.