Rising tensions between China and Japan over Taiwan are placing Kenya in a delicate diplomatic and economic position, as both countries are key partners in trade, investment, and development. The crisis erupted following comments by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi on November 7, warning that a Chinese attack on Taiwan could trigger a military response from Tokyo. China condemned the remarks as interference in its internal affairs, intensifying a diplomatic standoff that has included ambassadorial summoning and a stern Chinese travel advisory.
For Kenya, the stakes are high. China is one of the country’s largest creditors and has funded major infrastructure projects like the Standard Gauge Railway, while Japan is a leading provider of development assistance and investment. Kenya officially adheres to the One-China policy but also maintains deep economic and diplomatic ties with Japan, creating a complex balancing act.
The geopolitical crisis threatens regional trade and investment flows. Taiwan Strait tensions could disrupt global supply chains, affecting imports of electronics, vehicles, and machinery critical to Kenya’s economy. Moreover, uncertainty could cause investors from both nations to reconsider future projects in energy, transport, and technology across East Africa.
Global powers are urging restraint. The United States, G7 nations, and the European Union have all emphasized the importance of stability in the Taiwan Strait, warning against unilateral actions that could destabilize global commerce. For Nairobi, navigating this diplomatic tightrope is crucial to safeguarding economic interests while avoiding entanglement in escalating Asian tensions.