Political Violence Ahead of 2017 Elections

Ethnic Tensions and Hate Speech Rise as Kenya Nears Election Season
With the next general election cycle on the horizon, Kenya is witnessing an alarming early surge in divisive ethnic rhetoric and localized political violence, raising fears of a return to the dark chapters of its contested electoral history. Recent by-elections in parts of the Rift Valley and Western Kenya have been marred by chaotic clashes between rival youth groups, resulting in injuries and property damage. Security analysts and civil society groups are warning that the political class is already resorting to inflammatory language, mobilizing supporters along ethnic lines and exploiting historical grievances for political gain, creating a tinderbox atmosphere.
The underlying drivers of this tension are multifaceted. Key among them is the intense competition for political supremacy within the ruling Kenya Kwanza coalition, which has triggered early succession battles and forced allies to consolidate their ethnic bases. Simultaneously, the opposition Azimio la Umoja coalition is grappling with leadership questions, creating a vacuum that various factions are seeking to fill through heightened rhetoric. What we are seeing is the early campaigning strategy of certain politicians who believe that mobilizing through fear and ethnic antagonism is more effective than campaigning on development records, stated Dr. Agnes Odhiambo, a political analyst at the University of Nairobi.
Civil society organizations, including the National Cohesion and Integration Commission (NCIC), have documented a significant increase in coded hate speech on social media and in political rallies. The NCIC has already issued summons to several aspiring politicians and social media influencers for utterances deemed inflammatory. We are acting early because we know the road this leads down. We cannot allow the 2027 election to be defined by the violence and division we have seen in the past, NCIC Chairperson Rev. Dr. Samuel Kobia said in a recent briefing. Victims of past post-election violence have also voiced their trauma, urging politicians to exercise restraint.
The future stability of the nation hinges on proactive measures from both state and non-state actors. The government is under pressure to ensure the independence and preparedness of the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) to conduct a credible poll. More critically, there are calls for the swift and impartial prosecution of individuals inciting violence, regardless of their political affiliation. The choices made by our leaders in the coming months will determine whether Kenya enjoys a peaceful competitive election or descends into another cycle of needless conflict. The warning signs are clear; we must heed them, concluded Dr. Odhiambo. The international community is also watching closely, with several diplomatic missions already engaging with key political actors to advocate for a peaceful process.