A new analysis of national examination data has raised concerns that Kenya’s free education policies, while successful in boosting school enrollment, have not translated into improved learning outcomes for children from low-income households. The study, conducted by education researchers Emmanuel Manyasa and Mercy Karogo, examined KCSE results from 2017 to 2019 and found that pupils who attended rural public primary schools—where most disadvantaged children learn—are overwhelmingly represented in the bottom quarter of national performance. Despite being the biggest beneficiaries of Free Primary Education (FPE) and Free Day Secondary Education (FDSE), these learners continue to lag far behind their peers from private and urban public schools.
According to the findings, children from rural public schools form about 66 percent of the learner population but account for more than 75 percent of the lowest KCSE performers. Conversely, private school pupils, though only 20 percent of the population, dominate the top performance band. Performance gaps emerge as early as primary school: 72 percent of learners scoring over 400 marks in KCPE came from private schools, while three-quarters of rural public school pupils scored below 250 marks. These disparities strongly influence secondary school placement, with most low-income learners channelled into sub-county schools—institutions the study describes as poorly equipped and under-resourced —which further reduces their chances of excelling in KCSE.
The researchers warn that Kenya’s emphasis on expanding access, without equal investment in quality and equity, is tightening rather than reducing inequality. Budget allocations to the Ministry of Education have declined from 21.3 percent of total government spending in 2013/14 to just 8.8 percent in 2020/21, worsening the resource gaps across school categories. The study also finds age and repetition patterns linked to poor performance, showing that older learners and those who started school late are significantly overrepresented among low achievers. While boys slightly outperform girls on average, the study notes that school type and prior KCPE performance are the strongest determinants of KCSE results.
Looking ahead, the researchers call for a comprehensive review of FPE and FDSE, arguing that Kenya must redesign these programs with a clear equity focus if it is to achieve Sustainable Development Goal 4 on inclusive, quality education. They recommend rethinking the funding model, addressing quality gaps in public primary and sub-county secondary schools, and ensuring that children from the poorest households access meaningful learning—not just classrooms. Without urgent policy reforms, they warn, Kenya risks entrenching learning poverty and undermining the transformative promise of universal education.