MUGA: Will 2027 be politics as usual?

In a provocative piece published earlier this year, Wycliffe Muga contends that Kenya’s upcoming 2027 general election stands at a crossroads: will it mark a genuine break with the past, or will it simply replay the familiar pattern of ethnic coalitions and vote-block politics? Muga argues that despite the dramatic youth-led protests of June 2024, Kenya’s political class appears intent on sticking with the old formula — alliances built on tribal arithmetic rather than fresh ideas.
Muga highlights how the youthful generation of Gen Z seemed poised to reshape Kenya’s political terrain, rallying for transparency, accountability and a departure from the tribal ballot. Yet he notes that key players — including William Ruto and opposition leaders — are instead reverting to long-standing patterns of regional vote-seeking. For example, Ruto’s outreach to Western Kenya in what has traditionally been a Mt Kenya stronghold reflects a purely electoral calculus rather than a platform of change, according to Muga.
He warns that with politicians scrambling to cobble together two-and-a-half tribe formulas (two large tribes plus one small) the promise of a youthful transformative agenda risks being drowned out.
The column suggests the consequences are real: if the 2027 election is fought on the same old templates, Kenya may miss a chance to transcend identity-based politics and move toward issue-driven, generationally inclusive governance. Muga underscores that young voters are watching — and if they feel sidelined, the legitimacy of the process may suffer. He calls on political actors to seize the moment: redefine alliances, engage youth genuinely, transcend tribal blocs and innovate beyond campaign slogans. The path ahead is clear — but whether Kenya chooses it is less certain.